The decision made by the Banco Central Europeo (BCE) on September 10 has once again put interest rates at the center of decisions for those seeking housing. After several years marked by the increasing cost of financing and subsequent decreases in interest rates, the main doubt for many buyers is now whether it’s best to take the plunge before the end of the year or wait until 2027.

Beyond the specific movement of official interest rates, the scenario faced by buyers is determined by a combination of factors such as the cost of mortgages, the evolution of housing prices, available supply, and their own financial capacity.

According to the Hipotecas area of Housfy, waiting for potential improvements in financing conditions does not necessarily guarantee a more favorable operation. “The BCE’s decision is an important factor, as it will affect the interest rate that can be achieved, but it shouldn’t be the only element that determines when to buy,” explains Joan Balasch, head of the hipotecas area at Housfy.

Understanding the Impact of Interest Rates and Housing Prices

The behavior of housing prices adds a second variable to the equation. While interest rates have left behind the highs reached during the monetary tightening cycle, housing prices continue to rise. According to the latest available data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), housing prices increased by 12.9% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, with a 13.5% increase in the case of second-hand housing.

This evolution raises a relevant question for those delaying their purchase decision: whether a future reduction in financing costs could be partially offset by a higher purchase price. For example, for a 300,000-euro home, financed at 90% over 30 years, a 0.20 percentage point reduction in interest rates would result in an approximate monthly savings of 28 euros, or 10,000 euros over the life of the loan. However, a 12.9% increase in the property price would increase the purchase amount by 38,700 euros.

The buyer is once again looking beyond the interest rate, considering the overall conditions of the operation. In Housfy, financing applications have evolved by +12% during the first eight months of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year, while signed mortgages have increased by +11%. During this same period, mortgages signed with 95% or more financing have gone from 44.9% (2025) to 50.0% (2026).

Who Should Consider Buying Before 2027

There is no single valid answer for all buyers. The decision depends largely on the financial situation and needs of each household. However, there are some profiles for which waiting may not be the best alternative.

Those with sufficient savings can consider the current conditions without relying exclusively on a future decrease in interest rates. Those who have found a suitable home should also consider buying, as delaying the decision may mean the property is no longer available or new opportunities arise at higher prices.

Buyers who can secure better financing conditions or have a specific need to change homes should also consider buying before 2027. For these buyers, waiting several months to anticipate the next movement of the BCE may not be worth it if the home they need continues to increase in price.

Madrid and Barcelona are two markets with distinct conditions, concentrating a significant part of residential demand but presenting differences in prices, supply, and buyer behavior. In the first eight months of 2026, Housfy’s purchase and sale operations were 15.4% in Madrid and 64% in Catalonia.

For Joan Balasch, this evolution reflects that the purchase decision is increasingly linked to the particular circumstances of each operation: “We don’t believe there’s a universally good or bad time to buy. What’s important is analyzing what’s happening with prices and financing in each market and, above all, if the operation makes sense for the buyer’s specific situation.”

The question is not just how much interest rates will drop, but how much it costs to wait. With an eye on 2027, the evolution of interest rates will continue to be one of the factors determining the behavior of the mortgage market. However, the evolution of prices may acquire increasing weight in the decision.

For a buyer with financial capacity, comparing the cost of financing a home today with the cost of buying the same home in six or twelve months may be more useful than trying to exclusively anticipate the next movement of the BCE. As Joan Balasch concludes, waiting can make sense when financial capacity is not yet sufficient or current conditions do not allow for the operation to be assumed.

But if the buyer is prepared, has a good purchase opportunity, and secures competitive financing, delaying the decision solely in anticipation of a decrease in interest rates does not guarantee that they will end up buying more cheaply. The cost of waiting, in terms of potential price increases, must be carefully considered.

Market Variations and Financial Capacity

Geographic differences further influence the feasibility of buying before 2027. The residential market is not uniform, as demand concentrates heavily in specific urban areas while remaining lower elsewhere.

These regional disparities show that local conditions often matter more than national interest rate trends. A buyer in a high-demand city like Barcelona might face different pricing and availability challenges compared to a buyer in a different region. The specific circumstances of each market, including local supply levels and price trajectories, become decisive factors in the decision-making process.

Ultimately, the ability to secure financing plays a central role. The percentage of mortgages with high loan-to-value ratios has risen, with loans covering 95 percent or more of the property value increasing from 44.9 percent in 2025 to 50.0 percent in 2026. This trend indicates that buyers are increasingly relying on full financing to access the market.

For a buyer with sufficient financial capacity, the comparison between financing a home today and purchasing the same property in six or twelve months offers a clearer picture than trying to predict the next move of the ECB. Waiting may be rational when financial capacity is lacking or current conditions are too restrictive.